Chapter 5: I Have a Plan to Defeat Cao's Army (Please Continue Reading!)

The current political landscape, though ostensibly a period of competing warlords, is better described as a struggle for supremacy between the two Yuans. At this very moment, the brothers Yuan Shao and Yuan Shu are the two most powerful warlords; most other minor lords are merely their subordinates or allies. For instance, Cao Cao is a junior ally of Yuan Shao, while Liu Bei is a subordinate of Gongsun Zan. Tao Qian, meanwhile, has chosen to align himself with Yuan Shu to counter Yuan Shao in the north.

Looking at the map, it is clear that Cao Cao, having just secured a precarious foothold in Yan Province, has been suddenly surrounded by the three forces of Yuan Shu, Tian Kai, and Tao Qian. Naturally, Cao Cao had to pick one to break through. He could not afford to provoke Yuan Shu, and Tian Kai was under the protection of Gongsun Zan, leaving Tao Qian as his only viable target. This is the primary reason for the escalating conflict between Cao Cao and Tao Qian. His brutal, scorched-earth campaign was intended to weaken Tao Qian’s strength.

Xu Province was wealthy. While the rest of the country was suffering from famine, the old man Tao Qian somehow still had the resources to renovate temples and commission golden statues. Who wouldn't be envious of that? It was precisely because of this wealth that Cao Cao felt the need to slaughter and pillage; after all, plundering wealth directly is far faster than waiting for one's own harvests to grow.

Some might ask: isn't Cao Cao’s pillaging and slaughtering a case of drinking poison to quench thirst? Indeed, a great leader with the ambition to unify the world must win the hearts of the people. Yet, Cao Cao was in a desperate situation. When he first took control of Yan Province, he had incorporated over a million men and women from the Yellow Turban rebels of Qing and Xu Provinces. He could not kill them all, so he chose to accept them, understanding that population is the most crucial resource in ancient times—it represents both the source of soldiers and the source of grain. It was this influx of a million former rebels that allowed his strength to surge, giving him the power to challenge Yuan Shao within a few years.

However, the process was agonizing, as the barren Yan Province could not support such a population. The neighboring Xu Province, governed by old Tao, was rich. What better way to make room for his own people than to slaughter theirs? And while he was at it, looting their money and grain to feed his own troops—wasn't that a perfect plan? Such was the true reason for Cao Cao’s massacre in Xu Province. Ultimately, it was a case of "innocence is no crime, but possessing a jade ring is." With Yan Province starving and burdened by a million refugees, and his own army so destitute that they had to rely on Cheng Yu’s "honest" supply of human jerky to survive, Cao Cao naturally had to plunder the wealthy Xu Province.

After hearing Li Yi’s analysis, Liu Bei, Guan Yu, and Zhao Yun all fell silent. Liu Bei sighed and lamented: "Alas, those who achieve great things throughout history have always valued the people as the foundation and the most precious asset. The ruler is light, but the people are heavy."

Guan Yu raised his head in indignation and requested permission to march: "Brother! Cao Cao is now retreating in a panic to deal with the crisis in Yan Province. Give me a force of elite soldiers, and I will surely secure a total victory!"

Guan Yu had always sympathized with the downtrodden, and after being stirred by Li Yi’s words, he was even more incensed, immediately pleading to avenge the people of Xu Province. Liu Bei had just been defeated by Cao Cao at Tan County; his troops were exhausted, and they desperately needed a victory to boost morale. Just as Liu Bei was about to agree to Guan Yu’s request, Li Yi spoke up to stop him.

"You must not. If you pursue now, you will surely be defeated by Cao Cao."

"Hiss..." Hearing this, Guan Yu looked displeased and asked, "Why does the Master dampen our spirits and bolster the enemy's? Do you doubt my valor, or do you look down upon me?"

Liu Bei, knowing his sworn brother’s temperament, intervened to mediate. "Yunchang, do not be impatient. Let us hear what the Master has to say."

All eyes turned to Li Yi, who explained calmly, "It is not that I look down upon General Guan. Though you are as brave as any in the three armies, Cao Cao is a master of military strategy. Even though he is retreating, he will certainly have formidable commanders guarding the rear to prevent pursuit. Our troops, though sharp, cannot overcome such a defense; to pursue now would be to court certain defeat."

Guan Yu fell silent upon hearing this. Zhao Yun, looking at Li Yi with admiration, echoed his sentiment: "I agree deeply. The villain Cao is cunning and skilled in warfare. Our army has just been defeated; to pursue now would surely be futile."

Liu Bei nodded. He trusted Li Yi, but he felt it a pity to let the retreating Cao army go. After all, Cao Cao was ambitious and had frequently invaded Xu Province; if they did not strike back, the province would forever be at his mercy. "A single blow to avert a hundred others." Liu Bei needed a victory, and Xu Province needed one too.

Seeing the disappointment on their faces, Li Yi smiled and said, "Gentlemen, do not be downcast. I have a plan to defeat Cao's army."

"What is your plan?" asked a delighted Liu Bei.

Li Yi continued unhurriedly, "I said that the Cao army cannot be pursued directly. But if a force were to pursue them and be defeated, Cao Cao, believing he has crushed his pursuers, would likely hasten his retreat and drop his guard. If we then launch a surprise attack while he is unprepared, we will surely achieve a total victory."

Zhao Yun exclaimed from the side, "A brilliant plan! My Lord, I believe this is feasible!"

Liu Bei stroked his beard, hesitating, "But who shall be the first to pursue?"

Guan Yu suggested, "Why not let Zilong lead the light cavalry in pursuit, feign defeat, and return? Then, Brother, you can lead the main force to strike."

Zhao Yun commanded Liu Bei’s mixed-tribe cavalry, which possessed high mobility and combat effectiveness, making them well-suited for harassing Cao’s forces. However, Liu Bei felt something was amiss and asked Li Yi, "Master, do you think this plan is viable?"

Li Yi smiled and replied, "While the method is good, it is not foolproof. Cao Cao is suspicious by nature. If we send a small force to engage his main army, would he not be suspicious? Given his character, he would not speed up his retreat without first crushing a significant force. Furthermore, even a feigned defeat would result in actual losses. Cavalry are precious, especially this unit of mixed-tribe horsemen, which we acquired from Gongsun Zan. They are among the best, and losing even one would cause us pain for days. Our forces are already limited; we cannot afford such losses."

"Does the Master have a better plan?" Liu Bei inquired.

"Heh," Li Yi replied with an innocent smile. "I do have a plan to let someone else be the pursuing force to break Cao's army. I have heard that Tao Qian’s subordinate, Cao Bao, has been working with you to resist Cao Cao. We can have someone inform him that the Cao army is retreating. Cao Bao is greedy for glory and will surely lead his men in pursuit. Once he is defeated by Cao Cao, we will then launch our attack. This will both weaken Cao Bao’s influence and defeat the Cao army, boosting your reputation, my Lord. Is this not a perfect double-edged strategy?"

Cao Bao was, at the time, Liu Bei’s political rival. Though Tao Qian was mediocre and weak, he possessed a battle-hardened elite force known as the Danyang Soldiers, and Cao Bao was their commander. When Liu Bei arrived in Xu Province, Tao Qian had cunningly split off four thousand of these Danyang soldiers for Liu Bei, ostensibly to bolster his strength, but in reality, to divide Cao Bao’s military authority. He wanted Liu Bei and Cao Bao to fight each other, creating a balance of power that would consolidate his own position as the Governor of Xu.

Cao Bao, having had his power clipped, was naturally resentful and held a grudge against Liu Bei. Previously, when they had joined forces to resist Cao Cao at Tan County, he had been uncooperative, eventually suffering a crushing defeat at Cao Cao’s hands.