Chapter 43: The Bird That Sticks Its Neck Out

At the turn of the century, the world was far from tranquil.

The year 1897 witnessed many events, some within Feng Chengqian’s expectations, others beyond them. For instance, early in the year, Greece and the Ottoman Empire clashed over the issue of Crete. The major powers—Britain, France, Russia, and Germany—intervened jointly, demanding that the Ottoman Empire grant Crete full autonomy and that the Kingdom of Greece withdraw its troops. The standoff lasted until year’s end when Greece, exhausted financially, was forced to concede and withdraw from Crete—just as Feng Chengqian had foreseen. The relationship between the German Empire and Greece remained unaffected. However, towards the year’s end, the U.S. Congress approved an annexation bill submitted by President McKinley, making the Hawaiian Islands an American overseas territory. The United States swiftly deployed troops to occupy Hawaii, ending the Hawaiian Kingdom’s existence, contrary to Feng Chengqian’s prediction that annexation would not occur until 1898.

That year saw yet more momentous events. To curb French expansion in Africa, Britain launched the “Cairo Plan” and, together with Egypt, dispatched troops to Sudan. Meanwhile, Russia forced the Qing Empire to formally sign a lease for the Liaodong Peninsula, including Port Arthur.

While paying attention to these matters, Feng Chengqian’s focus was drawn even more to a single event: the groundbreaking discovery by British physicist Joseph Thomson.

Upon receiving the news, Feng Chengqian immediately traveled incognito to Britain.

Few understood the magnitude of Thomson’s discovery; many scientists strayed down the wrong path. Nearly all imperial physicists believed cathode rays were ether vibrations rather than streams of particles. Yet Feng Chengqian knew the truth: cathode rays were indeed streams of particles. Thomson’s work was enough to shatter a fundamental principle of classical physics—the indivisibility of the atom. In theory, his discovery laid the foundation for nuclear physics and, consequently, for the eventual creation of nuclear weaponry.

However, Feng Chengqian’s journey to Britain yielded little. Apart from a brief meeting with Thomson and a discussion on physics, he did nothing further, knowing it would be impossible to persuade Thomson to relocate to the German Empire.

As for Thomson’s discovery, it would not be valued by other scientists for several years to come.

Returning to Berlin, Feng Chengqian realized the urgent need to strengthen control over science and technology, guiding the empire’s scientists along the proper path.

It must be noted that at the time, almost no one in the empire’s scientific community paid any heed to Thomson’s discovery.

What were the consequences of this? Decades later, Britain’s early development of radar would be rooted in Thomson’s work, while the empire’s scientists would have gone too far astray.

That year, Feng Chengqian devoted most of his energy to establishing the imperial navy’s science and technology intelligence agency.

According to his conception, this agency, nominally subordinate to the Imperial Admiralty, would have two primary responsibilities: meticulous surveillance of scientific and technological developments in other countries and the identification of promising scientists within the empire. Since Emperor Frederick III had long since authorized Feng Chengqian to establish such an institution, the matter never came before the privy council, nor did Feng Chengqian inform Bismarck or anyone else.

At year’s end, a truly momentous event occurred: Chancellor Bismarck fell gravely ill.

In the history Feng Chengqian knew, the “Iron Chancellor” of the German Empire, Bismarck, died on July 30, 1898. Yet Feng Chengqian always believed that in a changed history, Bismarck might not die at eighty-three. After all, in the familiar timeline, Bismarck had resigned after Wilhelm II’s ascension, suffering severe mental and physical blows.

But history had changed in ways Feng Chengqian had not anticipated.

When Feng Chengqian accompanied Emperor Frederick III to the chancellery, Bismarck was bedridden, and the doctors’ prognosis was grim.

Clearly, the chancellor, who had navigated the empire through storm and strife, had been worn out.

Had he resigned a decade earlier, perhaps Bismarck might have lived another year. Years of toil had drained this storied figure of his spirit; the chancellor was no longer the man he once was.

On the way back to the palace with the emperor, Feng Chengqian’s mood was heavy.

Although he had initially harbored some prejudice against Bismarck, after ten years, Feng Chengqian realized his earlier views had been unfair. Whatever Bismarck had done, one thing was undeniable: without this chancellor, there would be no German Empire. In a sense, it was not Emperor Wilhelm I but Chancellor Bismarck who founded the empire.

“Can you cure the chancellor?”

The emperor’s sudden question caught Feng Chengqian off guard; he could only shake his head.

“I know you’ve had your differences with the chancellor, but I trust you’ve always respected him. Otherwise, you wouldn’t have learned so much from him over the years.”

“Your Majesty…”

“The chancellor is indeed old, but to see him like this…” Frederick III sighed. “I have made up my mind. In a few days, I will appoint you as vice chancellor to temporarily act in his stead. After Bismarck, you alone have the ability to steer the empire.”

“Your Majesty, that must not be.”

“Why not?” Frederick III glanced at Feng Chengqian. “Your abilities are plain for all to see; your contributions over the years are undeniable.”

“That’s not what I mean. I mean…”

“What, then?”

Feng Chengqian sighed inwardly. “If I take his place as soon as the chancellor falls ill, what will others think? Moreover, if Your Majesty appoints the Minister of Naval Warfare as chancellor, what signal does that send? At the very least, Britain will believe the empire is embarking on a major naval expansion.”

“Aren’t we already doing so?”

Feng Chengqian smiled. “Yes, we’ve been expanding the navy, but discreetly, without drawing Britain’s attention—hence our relations with them remain reasonably stable. If Your Majesty puts me in charge of imperial affairs—even as vice chancellor—it would be an unequivocal message to Britain that we are about to greatly enlarge our navy.”

“So you mean…”

“At that point, we would lose our last, and perhaps most important, potential ally.” Feng Chengqian smiled again. “Of course, we have never regarded Britain as a true ally, nor should we. But before the empire reaches its full strength, we must keep Britain neutral. In fact, that is precisely what the chancellor has worked so hard to maintain all these years. With the Franco-Russian alliance a fait accompli, Britain’s neutrality is crucial. If Britain’s stance shifts even slightly, France and Russia will make war on us.”

Frederick III remained silent, for he knew Feng Chengqian spoke the truth.

“Of course, whatever my position, serving Your Majesty and the empire is what matters most.” Feng Chengqian paused briefly, then continued, “In my view, it would be unwise to appoint a vice chancellor at this time. Even if the chancellor’s condition does not improve, we should delay the matter for a year or more.”

“Why?”

“To create a false impression for our potential enemies.”

“What kind of impression?”

Feng Chengqian smiled. “Let those covetous foreign powers believe that after Prince Bismarck, no one is capable of filling the chancellor’s post. They will think that two decades of policy are unraveling and that the empire is on the brink of internal turmoil due to his loss.”

“But…”

“Does Your Majesty believe it is better for us to take the lead, or for another nation to do so?”

“You mean…”

“No matter what your relationship with the King of England may be, British statesmen know that the rise of our empire is only a matter of time. A few months ago, during my trip to Britain, the topic most often discussed among the public was the threat our growing empire would pose. It’s easy to imagine: the day we set out for distant seas is the day Britain becomes our enemy.” Feng Chengqian exhaled deeply. “Without doubt, our empire cannot remain Europe’s preeminent power forever. Even if that is not Your Majesty’s intent, those who control every sector of the empire—capitalists and the nobility transitioning to industrial and financial power—will inevitably push us to the forefront. In other words, conflict and even war with Britain are only a matter of time. Until then, we must keep a low profile and find a scapegoat, letting the empire step away from the spotlight.”

“So, let another country make the first move?”

Feng Chengqian nodded. “A few months ago, Russia forced the Qing to sign a lease agreement—an excellent opportunity.”

“What do you intend to do?”

“Wait for the right moment.”

Frederick III frowned, not quite grasping the meaning.

“Back then, we joined France and Russia in forcing Japan to relinquish the Liaodong Peninsula, the Shandong Peninsula, and Taiwan. Although Japan compromised, they did not willingly accept the new reality. For the past two years, I’ve opposed formalizing a lease with the Qing for fear of becoming the lightning rod. The Tsar, unable to wait, has made the first move and become our shield.”

“You mean…”

“If I am not mistaken, Britain will soon sign a secret alliance treaty with Japan, which will provide the basis for Japan to go to war with Russia.”

“You mean…” This time, Frederick III understood.

“Whatever the outcome of the Russo-Japanese War, we must make our position clear. Our aim is to push Russia to the center of the stage. Even if Russia suffers a crushing defeat in the next Far Eastern war, at least it will buy us several years and divert Britain’s attention from us.”

Frederick III nodded thoughtfully, ever more impressed by Feng Chengqian’s astuteness.