Chapter Fifty-Two: The Seeds of Calamity in Tsarist Russia

There was little news from the Far Eastern ground war, and it often took several days before Richthofen would send a telegram back, but most of the reports were unfavorable for Russia. By the end of August, the Japanese army had already captured Mukden and Liaoyang, forcing the main Russian forces to retreat to Port Arthur.

In early September, the Japanese began their siege of Port Arthur.

At this time, the Russian Second Pacific Squadron, which had set out nearly four months earlier, had entered the Pacific Ocean. However, instead of heading directly to Port Arthur, they entered Cam Ranh Bay.

Interestingly, France refused to supply coal to the Russian fleet and even demanded that, upon entering Cam Ranh Bay, the Russian warships stand down, cover their guns, and anchor under French supervision. After replenishing fresh water and provisions, they were required to leave port within twenty-four hours.

This was a heavy blow to the Russian fleet, which was already exhausted from its long journey. France's actions were compelled by British pressure. Although France regarded Russia as an ally against the German Empire, as relations between Britain and Germany cooled, France began to lean toward Britain, striving to win its favor and naturally unwilling to defy British wishes at this moment.

After leaving Cam Ranh Bay, the Russian fleet proceeded to Tokyo Bay, later known as Beibu Gulf.

At a critical moment, several accompanying colliers played a vital role, delivering urgently needed coal to the Russian fleet on September 14.

On September 16, the Russian Second Pacific Squadron weighed anchor and sailed north.

It seemed the tide of war was turning in Russia's favor.

The Russian Far East Fleet remained bottled up in Port Arthur. If the Second Pacific Squadron could arrive in time, the Russians would have a numerical advantage over the Japanese Combined Fleet. For Japan, losing control of the sea would mean losing the war entirely, with over a hundred thousand ground troops stranded with no way home.

Yet, the situation was far from ideal.

With the Russian reinforcements approaching, the Japanese became even more desperate. On September 12 alone, in their assault on Dagushan outside Port Arthur, they suffered nearly four thousand casualties. This battle marked the first combination of the Maxim machine gun and trench warfare, with a few Russian machine guns becoming deadly reapers of Japanese lives. The Russians also made pioneering use of mortars, achieving notable results.

The battle for Dagushan continued until September 17. Only after incurring nearly thirteen thousand casualties did the Japanese seize this critical high ground.

At this point, Port Arthur lay exposed under Japanese eyes.

That day, the Russian Second Pacific Squadron was still thousands of kilometers away.

When the Japanese installed artillery on Dagushan and began shelling Russian troops and warships in the harbor, the demoralized Russians could no longer hope to hold Port Arthur.

On September 18, the Russian Far East Fleet commander, Withoft, decided to attempt a breakout.

Unfortunately, the plan had leaked. Once the Japanese spotted the Russian ships raising steam, they brought the Combined Fleet to block the harbor.

In the fierce fighting that followed, Withoft was killed.

Most of the Russian fleet, after being repulsed, retreated back to Port Arthur. Some ships that fled to neutral ports were also disarmed.

Two Russian cruisers escaped to Jiaozhou Bay, where Vice Admiral Tirpitz, adhering to neutrality, ordered their disarmament. Two years after the Russo-Japanese War, when the German Emperor hosted Tsar Nicholas II, he presented these two warships as a gift.

After the failed breakout, the Russians continued their desperate defense of Port Arthur.

On September 24, the Japanese launched a massive assault, suffering nearly twenty thousand casualties in a single day—one-third of their total force. Though the Russians also lost several thousand men and morale sank even lower, the Japanese, exhausted and unable to sustain their attacks, were forced to abandon direct assaults in favor of a prolonged siege.

Clearly, the Japanese had given up on quickly capturing Port Arthur.

The problem was, the Russian Second Pacific Squadron was still making haste, and was about to arrive.

Given the situation, had the Russian Second Squadron sailed straight for Port Arthur, they would have had a good chance, together with the Far East Fleet, to defeat the Japanese Combined Fleet.

Yet, at this critical juncture, the Russians made a fatal error.

On September 26, after entering the East China Sea, Vice Admiral Rozhestvensky, commander of the Second Pacific Squadron, ordered a course change toward the Tsushima Strait.

In other words, the Russian fleet did not head to Port Arthur but instead aimed for Vladivostok.

More than ten hours later, Feng Chengqian received a telegram from Tirpitz, learning of the Russian fleet's altered course.

Several days earlier, Feng Chengqian had instructed Tirpitz to send a cruiser near Jeju Island.

Though Feng Chengqian believed that, with history already altered, the Russian Second Pacific Squadron might not repeat its fatal mistake, he made contingency plans in advance. As it turned out, even though the broader course of history had shifted, the details remained unchanged.

At this moment, the Japanese Combined Fleet was not off Port Arthur but had withdrawn to the homeland.

The Russian fleet’s decision to head for the Tsushima Strait was tantamount to walking into the lion’s den.

One must understand: the Japanese were desperately assaulting Port Arthur precisely because they feared the Russian reinforcements, and their fleet’s withdrawal was due to the same concern. If Rozhestvensky had led his fleet to Port Arthur, Japan, facing defeat, might have even sought British mediation before final victory. But the Russians’ move to the Tsushima Strait gave the Japanese one last gamble.

On September 28, the Battle of Tsushima began.

Because he was prepared, Vice Admiral Tirpitz’s dispatched cruiser observed almost the entire naval engagement.

At the time, only this cruiser of the German Empire arrived in time; British, French, and American warships operating in the Far East were all concentrated near Port Arthur, expecting the Russian fleet to go there for a decisive battle.

In this battle, which lasted more than ten hours, neither side performed particularly well, but luck favored the Japanese.

The greatest problem facing the Russian fleet was that, after nearly half a year at sea, both the ships and their crews were in dire condition. In contrast, the Japanese Combined Fleet was well-rested and had prepared for months.

As for the outcome, it was much as Feng Chengqian had anticipated.

In the end, only a few fast ships, including the Aurora, escaped to Vladivostok. The Russian Second Pacific Squadron was almost completely destroyed. Although the Japanese suffered considerable losses and several of their main ships were damaged, they retained full control of the seas. The besieged Russians at Port Arthur lost all hope of turning the tide.

By this point, Russia was defeated.

Curiously, it was not Russia but Japan that first proposed peace talks.

The Tsar was not reconciled. Although the opposition at home had launched a “revolution,” causing unrest, Russia’s strength far outmatched Japan’s. More importantly, the Trans-Siberian Railway was about to open, and the Tsar believed he still had a chance to reverse the situation, so he was in no hurry to seek an armistice.

It was Japan that truly could not bear the strain.

Though they had won at sea and scored several impressive victories, even destroying the once-dominant Russian Far East Squadron off Ulsan, Japan’s national resources were too scant, and their losses on land were devastating. For example, the Battle of Mukden alone cost the Japanese nearly seventy thousand casualties. By the end of September, Japanese casualties exceeded two hundred thousand.

Continuing the war would not bring Japan much more benefit.

On October 8, Japan requested mediation from the U.S. government, and President Theodore Roosevelt readily agreed to broker peace.

Although the Tsar did not immediately accept a ceasefire, Russia’s situation was also less than ideal.

For the Tsar, the greatest enemy was not Japan but the opposition stirring unrest at home. Losing Manchuria meant only the loss of a colony. If the “fire of revolution” ignited by the opposition spread, the Tsar risked losing both his throne and the entire Russian Empire.

Negotiations dragged on until May 1906. As the domestic situation deteriorated further, the Tsar was forced to compromise.

Finally, Russia agreed to withdraw from Manchuria and cede southern Sakhalin—also known as South Kurile—and the southern Kuril Islands to Japan, thus ending the war.

While the Russo-Japanese armistice was signed, another set of negotiations was underway.

These were the Anglo-German naval armament talks.

With the Nassau-class battleships (unless otherwise noted, including both the Rheinland and the Posen) and the Helgoland-class ships launched and under construction, and with Russia’s disastrous defeat in the Far East, the German Empire had unambiguously replaced Russia as the world’s second naval power. Although Britain and Germany had not yet openly broken, uncontrolled naval expansion meant a falling-out was only a matter of time.

In this context, Feng Chengqian took the initiative to advise the Kaiser that negotiations with Britain on naval armaments should begin as soon as possible.

Of course, negotiation did not mean halting progress, but rather buying more time.

The Kaiser accepted Feng Chengqian’s proposal and appointed him plenipotentiary to London for face-to-face talks with the British First Lord of the Admiralty.

In early 1906, Feng Chengqian made his first trip to London.

By the end of May, the Anglo-German naval talks had gone through four rounds with almost no progress; the two sides had serious disagreements on naval armament limitations.

Feng Chengqian did not give up, nor did the British.

Both sides knew that if negotiations on naval armaments failed to achieve substantive results, war would break out within five years, something neither wished to see.

The question was: would perseverance in negotiation yield any result?

Feng Chengqian held out little hope, nor did the British.

The fundamental conflict between an old great power and a rising empire could not be solved at the negotiating table. Perhaps these talks were nothing more than a warm-up before the coming war.