Chapter 63: Powder Keg

It didn’t take long for Feng Chengqian’s fears to become reality.

On May 13th, when Feng Chengqian received the news, Little Moltke had already returned to Berlin. Two days earlier, in Vienna, Little Moltke had held a secret meeting with Franz Conrad, the Austro-Hungarian Army’s Grand Marshal and Chief of General Staff, focusing on the ever-escalating Serbian crisis.

Although there were slight discrepancies from the history Feng Chengqian was familiar with, the consequences were much the same.

More importantly, a secret meeting with Conrad, the Austrian Chief of General Staff, was certainly not Little Moltke’s personal initiative—it must have been sanctioned by the Kaiser.

Why would the Kaiser choose to fan the flames at such a time?

The answer was clear: the Kaiser intended to use the Serbian issue to draw Austria-Hungary and Italy closer, hoping to secure the allegiance of these two continental military powers.

The problem was, a meeting between chiefs of general staff alone could not solve the fundamental issues.

After careful consideration, Feng Chengqian chose neither to approach the Kaiser directly nor to exert influence through the Crown Prince. He was not ignorant of the gravity of the matter, but he knew that since the Kaiser had already made his decision, there must be compelling reasons behind it.

From another perspective, Feng Chengqian had to admit that the Kaiser was not wrong to seize the opportunity to win over Austria-Hungary.

At this point in continental affairs, if the Empire did not actively court powerful allies, victory in a European war would be impossible. Whether or not Austria-Hungary was truly a strong ally, it could at least provide the Empire with some support when needed.

In less than a month, the German-Austrian alliance became a foregone conclusion.

On June 12th, Archduke Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, arrived in the German Empire and held a face-to-face meeting with the Kaiser at Chkonopischt.

The primary purpose of this meeting was to formulate an action plan for a war sparked by the Balkan crisis.

Although the Kaiser repeatedly asserted that if the situation in the Balkans deteriorated, Russia would likely declare war on Austria-Hungary, Archduke Ferdinand insisted that, beset by internal and external troubles, Russia was incapable of intervening and would not wage war over the Balkans.

This conviction led Ferdinand to believe that now was the best time to strike Serbia.

For this, he demanded a guarantee from the Kaiser: should Russia intervene, for instance by sending troops against Austria-Hungary, the German Empire would be obliged to assist Austria-Hungary.

Clearly, the Kaiser was unwilling to make such a promise.

If the German Empire went to war on the pretext of Russian intervention in the Balkans, France, bound by a secret military alliance with Russia, would declare war on Germany. The Empire would then face not only Serbia or Russia, but the two other most powerful continental nations. As for Austria-Hungary, it was doubtful they could make any meaningful contribution to a continental war.

It was obvious that by making such a commitment, the Empire’s fate would be handed over to Austria-Hungary.

Yet the Kaiser could not refuse.

When making his demands, Archduke Ferdinand made it clear that the guarantee regarding Serbia would be the foundation of the German-Austrian alliance.

If the Kaiser did not commit, the alliance would be in jeopardy.

Could the Empire afford to lose Austria-Hungary as an ally?

The answer was obvious: no. If they parted ways with Austria-Hungary, and Italy proved unreliable, the German Empire would truly stand alone.

The Kaiser had to make a guarantee, but he also had to prevent Austria-Hungary from sparking a war.

Thus, before giving his word, the Kaiser stipulated that German support for Austria-Hungary on the Balkan issue was conditional: Austria-Hungary must first be attacked by Russia or have war declared upon it by Russia; otherwise, the Empire would not honor the commitment.

Fortunately, Archduke Ferdinand could not reject the Kaiser’s terms.

The German Empire could not do without Austria-Hungary, but Austria-Hungary depended even more upon Germany. Without German backing, Austria-Hungary’s interests could not be safeguarded, not just in the Balkans, but anywhere.

With the Kaiser’s guarantee, Archduke Ferdinand decided that in half a month, a military exercise would be held over the Balkan issue, to take place in Bosnia near the Serbian border. This was both a demonstration of Austria-Hungary’s resolve and a test of Russia’s limits.

By the time Feng Chengqian learned of this, Ferdinand had already returned to Vienna.

Learning that the Kaiser had given Ferdinand a guarantee, Feng Chengqian was deeply shocked, for he knew that it was precisely this guarantee that would ultimately trigger the First World War.

Clearly, the Kaiser and Ferdinand had made a fatal misjudgment.

They had gravely underestimated Russia’s ambitions in the Balkans, and the actions Russia might take.

The Balkans, after all, were Russia’s concern. If not for Russia’s vast ambitions in the region, believing it to be within its sphere of influence and refusing to tolerate outside interference, the Balkan issue would not exist.

Moreover, after the humiliating defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, Russia was desperate for a military victory.

In the eyes of the Tsar, a major overseas victory would alleviate domestic tensions and silence calls for reform.

Internationally, there was much sympathy for this thinking.

France longed to reclaim Alsace and Lorraine, lost in the Franco-Prussian War, while Britain sought to contain the growing power of the German Empire. Thus, if the Tsar sought to use the Balkan crisis as a pretext for war, he could count on Anglo-French support.

With Britain and France behind him, what would restrain the Tsar?

The Kaiser’s guarantee to Ferdinand had been predicated on the assumption that Russia would not intervene in the Balkans, or at least would not declare war on Austria-Hungary.

Clearly, this assumption was unfounded.

The problem was, even though Feng Chengqian saw all this clearly, what could he do?

Ask the Kaiser to retract his guarantee?

Even if the Kaiser were willing, it would be of no help to the Empire, for breaking his word would lose Germany its only ally.

On June 20th, Feng Chengqian persuaded Tirpitz to dispatch a large number of intelligence agents to Sarajevo.

After Feng Chengqian left the Imperial Navy Department, the special agencies that had been under it were transferred to the Naval Command, now led directly by Tirpitz.

Among these was the intelligence agency Feng Chengqian had originally established under the pretext of advancing technology.

Now, Feng Chengqian’s greatest fear was that his worries would come true.

In the history familiar to Feng Chengqian, it was in Sarajevo that a young Serb named Princip, with a small-caliber revolver, fired the shots that triggered the First World War. Feng Chengqian did not wish to see history repeat itself—at least, he did not want Archduke Ferdinand to die in Sarajevo.

His aim was to find a way to alter history.

Yet, as a senior staff officer of the Imperial Navy Command, he could not personally travel to Sarajevo; he could only direct operations remotely from Berlin.

On June 27th, Archduke Ferdinand, accompanied by Duchess Sophia, arrived in Sarajevo.

Though Sophia was the Archduke’s wife, she had not received the title of Crown Princess, as she was not of noble birth and their marriage was unpopular. At the time, Ferdinand had even threatened to renounce his claim to the throne in order to marry her. Ultimately, the Emperor relented and accepted their union, but imposed strict limitations—Sophia was denied any royal title.

It was this marriage that led many to believe Ferdinand would one day be an enlightened monarch.

In the eyes of many, after Ferdinand’s accession, Austria-Hungary would enter a new era and become a continental power.

But the Archduke’s visit to Sarajevo was a grave mistake.

Though Ferdinand’s intentions were good—hoping to win over the Serbs and ease ethnic tensions by his presence—the act itself was foolish. Scheduling the military exercise for June 28th, Serbia’s national day, was a grave blunder.

Both the military maneuvers and the Archduke’s personal visit to Sarajevo were regarded by the Serbs as deliberate provocations.

Clearly, this provided extreme nationalists with a perfect pretext and the best opportunity to assassinate the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne.

That night, Feng Chengqian received word that his agents in Sarajevo had already located Princip and successfully completed their mission.

If sacrificing one life could save millions, Feng Chengqian would not hesitate.

Yet, would history truly be changed?

Feng Chengqian had no confidence in that.

In the history he knew, Princip was not a lone hero; he simply had better luck than the other assassins. Even if Feng Chengqian’s agents could eliminate the would-be assassins targeting Ferdinand, there was no guarantee Princip would be the last.

As long as Ferdinand remained in Sarajevo and appeared in public, he was in mortal danger.

That night, Feng Chengqian did not sleep.

His agents continued, as instructed, to seek out and eliminate members of the “Black Hand” who posed a threat to Ferdinand.

Thanks to the widespread use of telegraphs, news could arrive at any moment.

He stayed awake until dawn, then, after a brief breakfast, caught a short nap before returning to the Naval Intelligence Office to await the next dispatch from Sarajevo.

By then, Ferdinand and his wife had already left the consulate and were headed to the city hall.

According to plan, after meeting with the mayor, the couple would visit a local hospital to console convalescing Austrian soldiers.

Though Princip had been dealt with and his accomplice Pusara secretly arrested, no one could guarantee that the Archduke and his wife would reach their destination safely.