Chapter 119: The Wager

Upon meeting Tirpitz, Feng Chengqian took the initiative to propose unrestricted submarine warfare.

"Do you believe it is necessary for us to launch unrestricted submarine warfare?"

"If we can resolve the diplomatic complications, it is not out of the question, provided we carefully manage the timing and the method of implementation."

Tirpitz frowned, seemingly struggling to grasp Feng’s meaning.

"What the United States cares about is not the safety of merchant ships, but whether it can profit from this war and emerge as the ultimate victor."

"You mean..."

"We have been fighting for half a year; have you not seen it yet?"

Tirpitz offered a forced smile. There were still many things he had not yet seen clearly.

"Because the Schlieffen Plan failed to reach its conclusion, a swift victory is no longer possible. In my view, this great war will last at least another two years."

"Such pessimism?"

"It is not pessimism; it is a fact." Feng smiled and continued, "It is safe to say that before this, no one imagined the war would last this long. Before the outbreak, we—as well as the British, French, and Russians—all believed it would end within six months."

Tirpitz remained silent, for this was indeed the truth.

"If the war drags on, none of the current belligerent nations will emerge as true winners. Regardless of who holds out until the end, they will all be losers. Only those nations that have remained on the sidelines thus far, especially those of significant strength, have the potential to become the true victors."

"Are you implying that the United States will be the final victor?"

"Whether or not that happens depends on how the United States intervenes in this war, or rather, how it chooses to profit from it."

"This..."

"Of course, the situation is not entirely unfavorable for us."

"You mean..."

"Let me put it this way: if we are defeated at sea, even if we severely cripple the British Royal Navy, the United States will join the Allied camp."

Tirpitz was stunned, clearly missing the point.

"Of course, you might think the opposite is true. Because in your view, if we cripple the Royal Navy, the United States would gain the best opportunity to dominate the world's oceans, easily surpassing Britain to become the world's premier maritime power and ultimately replacing Britain as the global hegemon."

"That is indeed a fact. Do not forget, the United States possesses the third-largest fleet in the world."

"What is the purpose of a fleet?"

"This..."

"Regardless, a fleet is merely a tool to achieve national interests, and nothing more than a tool. If national interests can be achieved through other means, why use the fleet?"

Feng smiled and said, "The national interests of the United States lie primarily in the economic sphere—that is, profiting from the war. While the European powers tear each other apart, the United States can take the opportunity to expand its global influence. More importantly, as the war reaches its end, supplies from the United States will become vital to us, the British, the French, and the Russians alike."

"You mean..."

"Imagine, if we are defeated at sea, what will Britain do?"

"They would certainly impose a total blockade against us, preventing any supplies from reaching our hands."

"Then, to whom will the United States sell its manufactured goods?"

Tirpitz paused, then immediately understood Feng’s intent.

"Although there is no precise data, we can be certain that in these past six months, American businesses have already reaped significant profits from this war. To say nothing else, half of the merchant ships I have captured in the North Atlantic were carrying American goods, all bound for Britain. In other words, it is the immense consumption generated by the war that is driving American economic development, allowing their businesses to open up overseas markets. If Britain can impose a total strategic blockade against us, we will be unable to purchase goods from the United States, yet the goods they produce must be sold to someone. By then, the Allied members, including Britain and France, will become the largest clients of American enterprises."

"In that case, the United States will join the Allied bloc."

Feng nodded and said, "More importantly, the treasuries of Britain and France will eventually be drained by the war, and they will have no choice but to borrow from the United States to purchase supplies. Obviously, the United States will not refuse their loan requests, and the more Britain and France borrow from them, the more the United States will be compelled to support them. Only by supporting an Allied victory can the United States ensure that Britain and France repay their debts after the war ends."

Tirpitz nodded, indicating he understood Feng’s logic.

"Clearly, unrestricted submarine warfare is not the issue; the key is whether we can become the United States' largest debtor. As long as the loans we obtain from the United States exceed those of Britain and France, the United States will not rashly join the Allied bloc, as that would mean incurring even greater losses when the war ends."

"So, you intend to discuss this matter with His Majesty?"

Feng let out a long sigh and said, "Getting His Majesty to agree with my perspective will not be easy, because it implies that even if we win this war, we will not be the final winners."

"But, do we have any other choice?"

Feng offered a strained smile. "His Majesty does not think so."

"This..."

"Regardless, the current situation is not entirely unfavorable to us. At the very least, we have not been completely blockaded by the British Royal Navy; we can still trade with the United States and continue to obtain loans and supplies from them. If we can sever the connection between Britain and the United States, forcing the Americans to ship their supplies to us instead, then they will not be in such a hurry to join the Allied bloc."

Tirpitz nodded in agreement.

"Next, we must strengthen our maritime blockade against Britain; unrestricted submarine warfare is merely one of the means at our disposal." Feng paused briefly, then added, "My intention is to designate a zone near the British Isles for unrestricted submarine warfare, attacking any ship entering that area without warning. However, we must simultaneously strengthen our blockade, deploying commerce raiders to prevent neutral vessels from approaching the British coast, thereby reducing the probability of our submarines mistakenly striking neutral ships."

"The problem is, we do not have enough warships."

"The *Invincible* has been severely damaged, and even if the *Tiger* successfully enters service, the Royal Navy will have at most three battlecruisers available this year. My proposal is to keep only five battlecruisers, such as the *Derfflinger*, and assign the others to commerce raiding duties."

"This..."

"If we rely solely on the *Berlin*, we certainly cannot fully blockade Britain."

Tirpitz sighed, acknowledging Feng's point.

"As long as our strategic blockade achieves its goal, victory will not be far off."

"I can agree to this, but it requires the Emperor’s permission."

Feng nodded, understanding Tirpitz’s position. Of course, Feng knew that when it came to naval matters, the Kaiser rarely opposed decisions made by him and Tirpitz, provided they benefited the Empire. However, this was not Feng’s only request.

"Our shipbuilding program must also be adjusted. In addition to accelerating the construction of the *Bayern*-class battleships and *Derfflinger*-class battlecruisers, the planning for the next generation of battlecruisers can be put on hold, and the construction of the next class of battleships can be delayed by half a year. The top priority is to build more submarines and large warships suitable for long-range commerce raiding to meet operational requirements."

"This..."

"If possible, I would like to be personally responsible for this."

Tirpitz nodded without objection. Before he became the Imperial Navy Minister, Feng had held full responsibility for the Empire's shipbuilding plans.

"Let us say a month; then we shall discuss the specifics of the shipbuilding plan."

"That is fine. You should stay in Berlin, no need to go to Wilhelmshaven; you could use a good rest."

"Let us see His Majesty first, then we can talk about rest."

The next day, Feng and Tirpitz went to the Potsdam Palace to present the plan for blockading Britain and the corresponding adjustments to the Imperial Navy’s shipbuilding program. Most importantly, they needed to recalibrate the Empire’s diplomatic strategy in light of the new situation, particularly regarding relations with the United States.

The Kaiser did not object to the adjustments to the shipbuilding program. However, regarding diplomacy, the Kaiser did not believe it necessary to court the United States. The reason was simple: at the time Feng and Tirpitz made their request, the German military had achieved major victories on both the Eastern and Western fronts, leading the Kaiser to believe that the Empire would soon win the final victory.

At that time, the German army had already swept the entire Eastern Front, forcing the Russian army into a continuous retreat. Furthermore, Romania had made concessions regarding its participation in the war, indicating that after resolving a few final issues, it would declare war on the Allied bloc before the end of March. On the day Feng returned to Berlin, the Ottoman Empire launched an offensive in the Middle East.

Although the British and French were not performing well on the Western Front, and their planned strategic offensives were repeatedly delayed, Britain had already sensed the threat from the eastern Mediterranean and was working hard to persuade France to reinforce the Middle East. Of course, the wavering stance of Italy also deeply worried the British and French.

Given the circumstances at the time, if the British and French could not break the stalemate on the Western Front in the first half of the year, and Russia could not stabilize its front lines, then after Romania, Bulgaria, and other nations joined the Axis, it was highly likely that Italy would join the Axis in the latter half of the year. If it truly came to that, the British and French would be nearing defeat.

It could be said that the battlefield situation was highly favorable to the Empire, and thus the Kaiser did not care much about the position of the United States. In his view, even if the United States joined the Allied bloc, it would be difficult for them to have an immediate effect, and when the tide had turned against the British and French, the Americans might not necessarily join the Allies at all.

Clearly, the Kaiser had overlooked the most critical issue. Whether the United States entered the war did not depend on whether the British and French could win, but on whether the stakes placed on the British and French were worth the Americans risking their lives. From this perspective, the Kaiser’s judgment was fundamentally flawed.