Chapter Ninety-Six: The Bait

In the engagement that would later be known as the Battle of Dogger Bank, both sides made more than their share of mistakes.

Jellicoe’s gravest error was that he failed to analyze Beatty’s intelligence report thoroughly and carefully, and so drew the wrong conclusion.

Given the circumstances at the time, Jellicoe could have reached the correct conclusion without difficulty.

First of all, even if the High Seas Fleet had gone to support von Spee’s squadron, it would not have sailed straight north after learning that the Grand Fleet had already put to sea. The reason was simple enough: doing so would reveal von Spee’s route, and the Grand Fleet, having every advantage of time and position, might well intercept it before the High Seas Fleet arrived. Tactically speaking, the High Seas Fleet’s best option was to find some way to pin the Grand Fleet in place. If that were the case, the High Seas Fleet would certainly not head directly for von Spee’s squadron, but would instead move toward the Shetland Islands to put pressure on the Grand Fleet.

The real question was why Jellicoe could have made so elementary a mistake.

From the situation at the time, the principal cause still lay with Jellicoe himself: he was unwilling to bring the High Seas Fleet to decisive battle. Put plainly, if Jellicoe had from the start prepared himself in mind for a showdown with the High Seas Fleet, he would not have been misled by appearances.

It could be said that the mistake Jellicoe made was a fatal one.

Had Hipper and Feng Chengqian seized the opportunity, they would have been fully capable of annihilating the Grand Fleet at a stroke, or at the very least of inflicting a crippling blow upon it.

Unfortunately, Hipper and Feng Chengqian made an error of their own at this very moment.

After receiving the telegram from the Strasbourg, both men believed that Jellicoe would lead the Grand Fleet northeast. The reason was simple: if Jellicoe had concluded that von Spee’s squadron would come south from near Norway, then his position would allow him to arrive first, ahead of the High Seas Fleet. Even if only by a few hours, Jellicoe could destroy von Spee’s squadron and then turn to fight the High Seas Fleet.

There was another important reason for Hipper and Feng Chengqian’s judgment: Jellicoe was striving to avoid a decisive battle with the High Seas Fleet, yet he still had to secure some acceptable result from this operation. That gave Jellicoe ample motive to intercept von Spee’s squadron.

Clearly, both Hipper and Feng Chengqian believed that Jellicoe should be able to infer the general position of the High Seas Fleet.

As a result, when Jellicoe turned northeast, Hipper likewise ordered his fleet to turn northeast as well. The Grand Fleet’s course was thirty-five degrees, while the High Seas Fleet’s course was fifteen degrees. In other words, the two fleets’ headings formed an angle of twenty degrees; they were not parallel.

That meant the two fleets would not meet for another twenty hours.

In naval warfare, waiting is an entirely ordinary thing.

By the morning of the twelfth, the situation on the battlefield had taken a sharp turn.

Shortly before dawn, a light cruiser on a northern search spotted the Grand Fleet; however, it then sent a wireless message stating that the force it had encountered was not the Grand Fleet, but merely a convoy composed of several merchant ships. According to later information, it was indeed a convoy bound for the Skagerrak.

In fact, Beatty’s battlecruiser force was some thirty nautical miles north of this convoy.

At the time, a Royal Navy light cruiser was already near the convoy and had sighted a German light cruiser appearing to the south.

This time, however, the British ship did not open fire. Instead, it kept the German vessel under distant observation.

Curiously, the German cruiser did not spot the British ship, nor did it leave the convoy. It continued to steam with it, as though its captain believed that a British force was close at hand.

Only an hour later, as daylight strengthened, did the German cruiser turn away.

By then the British ship was still hidden in the darkness, so the German lookouts failed to see it; instead, the lookouts aboard the British ship observed the German cruiser’s movements clearly.

Around eight o’clock, Beatty received a report from the light cruiser, informing him that a German vessel was heading south.

At that point, something both amusing and entirely understandable occurred: Beatty did not report it to Jellicoe at once.

This was easy enough to understand. It was only a light cruiser on reconnaissance, not the High Seas Fleet.

While maintaining his silence, Beatty decided to turn his force. In his view, if that German cruiser was returning to its fleet, then the High Seas Fleet could not be far to the south.

Clearly, Beatty was eager to meet the High Seas Fleet in decisive battle and wipe away the shame of the past.

Beatty’s decision had a decisive effect.

By then, the light cruiser Stralsund, which had discovered the convoy, had already sent its report. Since Hipper and Feng Chengqian both believed that the Grand Fleet was very likely to the north, when the Stralsund turned back, Hipper ordered the nearby light cruiser Rostock to head over, take over the watch on the convoy, and keep a close eye on any ships appearing near it.

At that time, the Rostock was east of the convoy.

That is to say, the Rostock was steaming west, while Beatty’s battlecruiser force was steaming southeast.

More important still, Beatty had every reason to believe that the High Seas Fleet had not run ahead of him, but was either to the south or to the southwest.

As a result, he paid no attention to the northeast, the direction from which the Rostock was approaching.

Around ten o’clock, the lookouts aboard the Rostock sighted several black columns of smoke and judged that there was a large fleet some twenty nautical miles ahead.

Clearly, this was Beatty’s battlecruiser force.

Regrettably, the British lookouts under Beatty failed to spot the Rostock. The black smoke from a light cruiser’s funnels could not compare with that of a battlecruiser, and moreover the convoy lay in the same direction as the Rostock, which led the lookouts to a mistaken conclusion.

Half an hour later, Feng Chengqian received a more accurate reconnaissance report.

After steaming at full speed for half an hour, the Rostock still had not closed to visual range and could still see only smoke on the horizon. From this, one could infer that the force the Rostock was chasing could not possibly be a main battle fleet making less than twenty knots.

If it was not a main battle fleet, then it could only be a battlecruiser force.

More importantly, the Rostock’s lookouts judged that there were at most three capital ships in the enemy fleet.

Obviously, this matched the intelligence received earlier: the Grand Fleet had only three or four battlecruisers, with three the most likely number and certainly no more than four.

What exactly was Beatty trying to do?

Feng Chengqian and Hipper were both somewhat puzzled. After the Battle of the Shetlands, neither man doubted Beatty’s courage; but to charge up against the High Seas Fleet in this manner was no different from throwing away one’s life. However brave Beatty might be, Jellicoe would not send him to his death.

Clearly, there was only one possibility: Jellicoe’s Grand Fleet was behind Beatty.

Hipper’s first order was to have the Rostock search the waters astern of Beatty’s force, and to have the returning Stralsund turn about and replace the Rostock in continuing to shadow Beatty.

From a tactical standpoint, there was nothing wrong with Hipper’s arrangement.

Yet it produced an entirely unexpected result.

After eleven o’clock, once Beatty discovered the Stralsund, he did not feel pleased. Instead, he became instantly alert, for the sudden return of a light cruiser that had previously been withdrawing meant the High Seas Fleet was nearby and had already sighted the enemy force advancing toward it.

In other words, the High Seas Fleet had already prepared for battle.

Continue south?

Beatty did not have the nerve for that. He had only three battlecruisers; not only could he not deal with the High Seas Fleet, he could not even match Raeder’s battlecruiser force.

At 11:15, Beatty ordered his force to turn.

The Stralsund sent a wireless message at once.

This only deepened Feng Chengqian and Hipper’s confusion, because Beatty’s force was now about sixty nautical miles to the north, while the High Seas Fleet had already turned northward. In at most an hour and a half, the two sides would be within effective gun range, yet Beatty’s turn at this moment made it plain that he wanted no decisive battle with the High Seas Fleet.

Perhaps Beatty was merely bait.

Of course, that was not the central issue.

Both Feng Chengqian and Hipper had made up their minds that, whether Beatty was bait or not, they would fight the Grand Fleet to a finish. Before that, however, they had to determine the situation clearly, especially the location of Jellicoe’s main force.

Neither man chose to flee; instead, they decided to press on.

The problem was that battleships could not possibly catch battlecruisers.

At half past eleven, Hipper issued orders to Raeder, who had by then been promoted to rear admiral and was acting commander of the High Seas Fleet’s battlecruiser force, instructing him to increase speed and pursue Beatty.

All this time, Beatty still had no idea that the High Seas Fleet was to the south.

Fortunately, when Jellicoe received Beatty’s telegram and learned that the High Seas Fleet’s scouting cruisers had already appeared in the nearby waters, he immediately became alert.

By then Jellicoe had already ordered Beatty to return at full speed.

Although Jellicoe still believed that the High Seas Fleet was steering northeast, Beatty’s discovery was enough to convince him that the High Seas Fleet was close by.

More importantly, the High Seas Fleet may already have spotted Beatty’s battlecruiser force.

There was no doubt that if it encountered the Grand Fleet, the High Seas Fleet would abandon its primary purpose and seek a decisive battle with the Grand Fleet instead.

That being the case, it would certainly dispatch its battlecruiser force to pursue Beatty.

At that moment, Jellicoe saw his opportunity.

If he could use Beatty to lure out the High Seas Fleet’s battlecruiser force and destroy it in a single stroke, then even if von Spee’s squadron escaped, it would still count as a remarkable victory. It would also erase the humiliation of the Battle of the Shetlands and give him something to present to Parliament and the public.

The key was for Beatty to draw Raeder after him.

It could be said that, at this point, Jellicoe reached the most accurate of conclusions, and did so with perfect composure and reason. His arrangements were likewise sound and appropriate.

If Raeder pursued Beatty recklessly, the consequences would be impossible to imagine.