Chapter Ninety-Five: An Unexpected Encounter

On the night of December 8, Feng Chengqian received intelligence from Imperial Navy Headquarters and learned that Jellicoe had led the Grand Fleet out of the Bay of Biscay at noon that day.

Though no further reports were available for the moment, and the smaller vessels of the Imperial Navy operating in the North Sea had not come close to the Shetland Islands and therefore could not shadow the Grand Fleet, there was every reason to believe that the Grand Fleet was indeed at sea in the North Sea, and that its purpose was to intercept the High Seas Fleet.

What, then, was to be done?

That same evening, Hipper dispatched a scouting force led by twelve light cruisers to search over a wide area ahead of the main fleet.

Night reconnaissance was far from ideal, but it was better than doing nothing at all.

Besides, the North Sea was not so vast a place; if two fleets were steaming toward one another, they would meet within a day.

Before that, Jellicoe had made the same arrangements, except that he had sent out not light cruisers, but Beatty’s battlecruiser squadron. Since only three battlecruisers remained, Jellicoe had reinforced Beatty with two armored cruisers. In addition, Beatty had twelve light cruisers and nearly twenty destroyers of less than a thousand tons. Jellicoe’s orders were unmistakable: Beatty was to conduct reconnaissance alone, and upon sighting the High Seas Fleet, report at once rather than engage it in a decisive battle.

After the Battle of Shetland, Beatty must have become even more cautious.

Though both sides were prepared for contact, whether they would actually meet was another matter.

After dinner, Feng Chengqian went to see Hipper.

"Colonel, it isn’t your watch tonight, is it?" Though Feng Chengqian still held the titles of imperial duke and earl, rank took precedence in the army.

"I’m on duty tomorrow morning. I just thought of something I ought to discuss with you."

Hipper smiled and pulled a chair over for Feng Chengqian. On the battleship King, the largest officer’s cabin belonged to the fleet commander. In that room of roughly twenty square meters stood, besides a single bed a little over a meter wide, a desk, a wardrobe, and a chart table. Beyond that, in the inner compartment, there was a not especially spacious washroom. It was the only private washroom aboard the ship.

"What is it?"

"Do you think Jellicoe will take the initiative and seek battle with us?"

"That, I’m afraid, isn’t entirely up to him." Hipper took out two cigars. He had never smoked, but after several months with Feng Chengqian, he had picked up that bad habit.

"Exactly. It really isn’t up to him." Feng Chengqian did not hurry to light his cigar. "For Jellicoe to lead the Grand Fleet to sea at such a time, it was probably not his own idea, but a demand from the British leadership. After all, the Royal Navy was desperate to redeem itself after the Battle of Shetland. The real question is how they fight; that, I suspect, is still Jellicoe’s decision."

"You mean..."

"Jellicoe does not need a victory. He needs a result he can present to the government, Parliament, and the public."

Hipper nodded thoughtfully, showing that he understood.

"Clearly, he does not need to fight us to the finish. There are other ways to achieve a satisfactory outcome."

"You mean Jellicoe will try to intercept Spee’s fleet?"

"What do you think?" Feng Chengqian said with a smile, shaking his head. "Under the threat we pose, Jellicoe would never risk going after Spee’s fleet. If he did, we would have an even better chance of defeating the Grand Fleet. My view is that Jellicoe will avoid a decisive battle with us, but he will certainly try to make things difficult."

"But..."

"So long as he reaches his objective, Jellicoe can still return in triumph, even without fighting us to the finish."

"Then how will he fight?"

Feng Chengqian fell silent for a moment, then said, "That is precisely the question we have not yet answered, and must answer. If we cannot grasp Jellicoe’s state of mind, it will be hard to achieve anything of real value. And if we carelessly walk into his trap, we may suffer even greater losses."

"From what you say, I think Jellicoe intends to strike at us by surprise."

"A surprise attack?"

"Whatever else may be said, the Royal Navy knows the North Sea better than we do, and knows better where a decisive battle would favor them. More importantly, Jellicoe can roughly infer our intention: our primary aim is to bring Count Spee’s fleet back to the homeland, and only secondarily to engage the Grand Fleet in battle. Once he has those two points straight, he will think of a way to deal with us. By contrast, we do not fully understand Jellicoe’s purpose, and we do not even know whether his sortie is meant to intercept Count Spee."

Feng Chengqian nodded, showing that he understood Hipper’s meaning.

"Rather than trying to guess Jellicoe’s thoughts, we would do better to be more proactive."

"You mean..."

"Turn the tables."

Feng Chengqian frowned and waited for Hipper to continue.

"Since Jellicoe believes our main task is to cover Count Spee, let us put that aside for the time being and place a decisive battle with the Grand Fleet first. In simple terms, we take the initiative, seek out the Grand Fleet, and do not move to cover Spee until after contact is made. That way, at the very least, Jellicoe will have no chance to ambush us. And if Jellicoe goes after Spee instead, then we stand to gain even more."

"You mean using Spee as bait?"

"If necessary, yes."

Feng Chengqian did not answer at once. Of course, the idea of sacrificing Spee’s fleet was not Hipper’s alone. When the operation had first been planned, Feng Chengqian himself had considered something similar. At the time, he urgently needed to solve one problem: forcing the Grand Fleet into battle. To that end, he had thought of sending Spee’s fleet through the Shetland Islands into the North Sea, thereby luring the Grand Fleet out to intercept it.

The trouble was that Tirpitz had firmly opposed the idea.

Clearly, Tirpitz had political considerations in mind as well, for if Spee’s fleet could return to the homeland, it would prove that the Royal Navy was not omnipotent.

Because Tirpitz opposed it, Feng Chengqian revised the battle plan.

Hipper had taken part in drawing up that plan, and knew Feng Chengqian had once thought along similar lines, which was why he brought it up now.

After a long silence, Feng Chengqian said, "Let us wait. Unless it becomes absolutely necessary, Spee must not be sacrificed."

Hipper nodded, indicating that he understood.

On December 9, the High Seas Fleet had already penetrated 250 nautical miles into the North Sea and was approaching Dogger Bank in the central reaches of the sea.

About 100 nautical miles to the northwest of the High Seas Fleet, Beatty’s battlecruiser squadron of the Grand Fleet was steaming south as well, likewise bound for Dogger Bank.

Jellicoe’s Grand Fleet, however, remained near the Shetland Islands.

It was obvious that Jellicoe had not yet decided to fight the High Seas Fleet to a finish. In his view, if matters turned against him, he could always withdraw with the fleet.

Unfortunately, Jellicoe soon discovered how unrealistic that notion was.

In the evening, a telegram from Beatty shattered Jellicoe’s illusions and made the situation much clearer.

At about four o’clock that afternoon, Beatty and two cruisers sent out by Hipper met to the northwest of Dogger Bank. Although the British ships were the heavier armored cruisers, the German ships had the advantage of speed. Knowing they could gain nothing by pressing the encounter, the Germans withdrew first.

In his telegram, Beatty made the direction of the German withdrawal explicit: northeast.

This was a matter of crucial importance.

Whether Jellicoe or Hipper, upon receiving the message, would immediately assume that the High Seas Fleet lay to the northeast.

From that, one conclusion followed: the High Seas Fleet was heading for Norway.

Clearly, that was a very mistaken conclusion.

At the time, the cruiser Strasbourg, which had initiated the withdrawal, had indeed steamed northeast; but that could not mean the High Seas Fleet itself was to the northwest.

The Strasbourg had taken part in the Battle of Shetland and was the third ship of the Magdeburg class, one of the more advanced light cruisers in the Imperial Navy. After meeting the British ships, its captain immediately realized that if he withdrew straight back toward the fleet, he would certainly be spotted and shadowed. So, once forced to retreat, he chose to do so to the northeast.

Given the circumstances at the time, this was plainly an unpremeditated choice.

To put it simply, aside from the southeast, the Strasbourg could have withdrawn in any direction. Its choice of northeast had been made without the slightest design. Later, the captain of the Strasbourg even received a decoration for it.

The key, then, lay in the direction of the Strasbourg’s withdrawal.

Jellicoe first concluded that his earlier inference had been correct: the High Seas Fleet would move to cover Spee’s fleet, while Spee’s fleet would come south from the Norwegian coast.

The question now was whether to fight or not.

Less than two hours after receiving the telegram, Jellicoe ordered the fleet to turn south. Not northeast, but southeast. He then sent Beatty a message instructing him to scout toward the northeast and to report immediately if he sighted the High Seas Fleet.

Why did Jellicoe make such a decision?

There have been many analyses in later years, but at the time it produced only one result: it sent Jellicoe, who had not intended to seek a decisive battle with the High Seas Fleet, crashing straight into it.

It is certain that Jellicoe did not know then that the High Seas Fleet lay southwest of Dogger Bank.

Yet the Strasbourg also sent a telegram at once, reporting its encounter with the British warships, and this had a profound effect on Feng Chengqian’s and Hipper’s decisions. Had that influence not intervened, ten hours later, that is, by the morning of the tenth, the two fleets would have collided head-on.