Chapter 87: Born of Adversity
Under normal circumstances, out of a sense of propriety, Feng Chengqian rarely mentioned matters concerning the army in front of the German Emperor. But this time, he could no longer remain silent.
The current situation unfolding before him bore an uncanny resemblance to the history he knew so well. In Feng Chengqian’s view, if things continued along this path, the German army would undoubtedly lose the Western Front despite their advantageous position, and thus lose the entire war. This had to be changed, and that meant preventing Little Moltke from continuing to make foolish mistakes.
The question was, how to make the Emperor see this?
“Your Majesty, there’s an old saying from our homeland.”
“What is it?”
“Adversity breeds survival; comfort brings death.”
Frederick III furrowed his brow and looked over at Feng Chengqian.
“It’s undeniable that things currently seem very much in our favor. At sea, we have won a great victory, and in East Prussia, we have routed the Russian army. But, Your Majesty, have you noticed that the true main theater is neither the North Sea nor East Prussia, but France?”
The Emperor did not respond, but he clearly understood this.
“Earlier, I had a conversation with General Ludendorff. He too is deeply concerned about the situation on the Western Front.”
“Is that so?”
Feng Chengqian nodded. In his discussion with Ludendorff, he had learned that the Emperor too was dissatisfied with Little Moltke and had long wanted to remove him, but lacked a suitable pretext. According to Ludendorff, the Emperor intended to appoint him as Commander-in-Chief of the German forces on the Western Front.
“Your Majesty, do you believe the Western Front can achieve victory as planned?”
“I’ve spoken with Little Moltke. He remains confident, though...”
The Emperor paused, not continuing immediately, and Feng Chengqian did not press him. He knew full well that Little Moltke was certainly trying to placate the Emperor. More importantly, the Emperor could not possibly be ignorant of the real situation on the Western Front, nor could he simply accept Little Moltke’s assurances.
“Since you’ve spoken with Ludendorff, you must know the Western Front’s operational plan has been revised several times.”
Feng Chengqian nodded and said, “I’ve heard that Marshal Moltke has already postponed the planned capture of Paris to the end of the year, mainly because the offensive is not proceeding smoothly.”
“If he can take Paris this year, I’ll be satisfied.”
“Is that what Your Majesty means...?”
“The reality is, I fear that even by the end of next year, Paris may remain untaken.” The Emperor exhaled heavily. “According to the latest intelligence, the British Expeditionary Force in France has now surpassed two hundred thousand men, and is increasing at a rate of two divisions per week. At present, the British forces are concentrated in the Flanders region, directly facing Mackensen’s First Corps and Demarwitz’s Second Corps. Though Little Moltke does not consider the British a significant threat, if things continue like this, he’ll soon be in for a rude awakening.”
“If that’s the case, then Britain and France are surely preparing to launch a major offensive.”
“That is exactly my greatest concern.”
Feng Chengqian’s brow twitched, his expression growing grave, for he recalled a matter from history: in early September, the British and French launched the Battle of the Marne, while the Russians simultaneously launched a fierce assault against the Austro-Hungarian Empire in the East, tying down German forces there. The result was that, after the Battle of the Marne, the German overall war plan was shattered, and the chance to take Paris was lost forever.
But in this era, the Battle of the Marne had not yet begun.
Still, Britain, France, and Russia, to halt the German advance, would undoubtedly launch simultaneous offensives on both the Western and Eastern fronts; otherwise, France would be doomed to defeat.
The key question was: when would these decisive battles be launched?
With these thoughts, Feng Chengqian felt the weight on his heart grow heavier.
“What’s wrong, are you worried as well?”
“Your Majesty...”
The Emperor smiled and said, “No matter what, your victory at sea was of immense importance. No matter how bold the Royal Navy may be, they won’t dare provoke us again in the near term.”
“That is not what troubles me, Your Majesty.”
“You mean...?”
“After more than a month of fighting, don’t you think it’s time for a proper, decisive battle?”
“Wasn’t the victory at Tannenberg such a battle?”
“That was a chance encounter. Neither side was truly prepared. What’s more, the Russian attack on East Prussia was meant mainly to relieve pressure on France.”
The Emperor nodded in understanding, seeing Feng Chengqian’s point.
“For over a month, Britain, France, and Russia have underperformed—not because their armies are incompetent, but because they were unprepared and rushed into battle. After a month of adaptation, even if they haven’t achieved perfect coordination, they can now at least synchronize their strategy.”
“You believe Britain, France, and Russia will launch counteroffensives on both fronts?”
Feng Chengqian nodded again. “And I believe they will focus on the Western Front.”
“But the Russians were just defeated at Tannenberg...”
“Although they suffered a crushing defeat, Russia’s situation is not dire. Their vast territory allows them to be unconcerned for now. More importantly, we have always prioritized the Western Front. Even with victory at Tannenberg, we have no intention of marching on Russian soil. Besides, to our south, the Austro-Hungarian Empire is utterly ineffectual. We can’t abandon them to fight Russia alone.”
“You make a valid point.”
“It’s clear that Britain, France, and Russia will focus on the West—but counterattack won’t be so simple.”
“What do you mean?”
“If we can predict their main axis of counterattack, do they still stand a chance?”
“Well...”
“Before launching their counterattack, Britain, France, and Russia will surely try to mislead us, to force a mistaken judgment. The best way to do so is to target our weak spot.”
“And what is that weak spot?”
“Austria-Hungary.”
The Emperor’s brow twitched, and his expression grew grim.
“Though the Russians cannot beat us, they are more than a match for Austria-Hungary.” Feng Chengqian paused, then continued, “If I am correct, the Russians will first launch an offensive in the East with massive force, focusing on Austria-Hungary. Given the Austrians’ current state, they will likely be forced to retreat into the Carpathians. At that point, old Franz will undoubtedly beg us for help.”
“And then the British and French will launch their offensive in the West?”
Feng Chengqian nodded. “The timing will differ by only two or three days, but with one precondition: the Russian offensive in the East must attract our full attention.”
“And the Western Front?”
“I believe the British and French counteroffensive on the Western Front is not intended to turn the tide or defeat us outright, but to ensure France does not fall quickly.”
“In other words...?”
“To put it simply, they will strike back at the most critical points.”
The Emperor, a soldier of decades’ experience, did not need Feng Chengqian to be overly explicit.
“You’re right—comfort brings death,” the Emperor sighed deeply. “In fact, before you, Ludendorff had already advised me to keep a close eye on the Anglo-French forces on the Western Front. But until now, no one has explained the problem as thoroughly as you have.”
“Your Majesty...”
“I will remind Little Moltke to pay heed.”
“However...”
The Emperor smiled. “No matter what, Little Moltke is still useful, and he has not yet made any grave errors or caused any major disaster. If I remove him now, many generals will be discontent. If he fails to seize the opportunity, then I will consider a new Chief of the General Staff.”
Feng Chengqian sighed inwardly and said no more.
After a moment’s hesitation, the Emperor asked, “If I do remove Little Moltke, who do you think is best suited for Chief of Staff?”
“In terms of seniority, Falkenhayn is the most suitable.”
“Should I take your words to mean you do not recommend Falkenhayn?”
“Your Majesty...”
“I know you have kept your distance from army affairs these years—not from lack of interest, but from discretion. But this is wartime; things cannot be as they were. There are few around me as forthright as you, so I truly value your counsel.”
Feng Chengqian exhaled and said, “Though I don’t know Falkenhayn very well, I feel he is much like myself.”
“What do you mean?”
“As Minister of War, Falkenhayn may not be suited to command armies in the field.”
The Emperor nodded thoughtfully. “Then whom do you recommend?”
“If seniority is not considered, Ludendorff is the best choice.”
The Emperor smiled. “If you say so, you must also realize it would be premature to make Ludendorff Chief of Staff right now.”
“In that case, make Marshal Hindenburg Chief of Staff, and appoint Ludendorff as Quartermaster General.”
“So you mean, have Ludendorff command operations in Hindenburg’s name?”
“Perhaps, that is the most appropriate arrangement for now.”
The Emperor was silent for a while, then said, “I’ll consider your advice, but I cannot make a decision just yet. Also, do you think Hoffmann is worthy of greater responsibility?”
“Your Majesty, if I say Hoffmann’s talent is not inferior to Ludendorff’s, would you believe me?”
“Is that so...?”
“As far as I know, at least half the credit for the great victory at Tannenberg belongs to Colonel Hoffmann. Without him, Ludendorff could never have won so easily.”
“So, you are recommending him to me in particular?”
Feng Chengqian smiled. “There are many talents in the army like Colonel Hoffmann. If they are put to good use, the Imperial Army will never lose a battle.”
The Emperor also smiled and said, “I will consider it—but patience is required.”
Feng Chengqian nodded to show he understood. For officers like Ludendorff and Hoffmann to be promoted, they first had to pass the hurdle of Little Moltke. Until the Emperor dismissed him, they would have to keep a low profile. In fact, this was the Emperor’s greatest dilemma. Little Moltke’s roots in the German army were too deep; removing him was no easy matter, and even the Emperor dared not act rashly.
As the Emperor said, patience was essential.